People wait to board a train towards Poland as they flee Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Lviv, March 5, 2022
Refugees, mostly women with children, arrive at the border crossing in Medyka, Poland, March 5, 2022
Civilians, mostly women and children rush to board any train car that still has any room on it in Irpin on Friday
view to the residential houses which were destroyed by shelling in Markhalivka, March 5, 2022
Gulaim Tolybayeva, the neighbour of Ihor Mazhayev, helps remove the rubble of his house in Markhalivka, March 5, 2022
Ukrainian troops take cover from Russian shelling in the city of Bucha, located to the west of Kyiv
A man stands in front of a residential building damaged in yesterday's shelling in the city of Chernihiv on March 4 after 47 people died in the city on March 3, according to officials
A house in Irpin, west of Kyiv, is pictured on fire on Friday as the town came under heavy Russian bombardment
A burnt car stands next to the remains of the local house of culture on Friday, following a night air raid in the village of Byshiv, 20 miles west of Kyiv
The city of Kharkiv, pictured, has been devastated by the Russian invasion. The city, to the east of Ukraine, has been under near constant bombardment
A woman walks amidst the debris of a school building destroyed by shelling, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in Zhytomyr on March 4
A local resident walks past the remains of a house of culture following a night air raid in the village of Byshiv, 40 kilometres west of Kyiv
Destroyed Russian armoured vehicles in the city of Bucha, west of Kyiv, which has been under heavy attack in recent days
Jens Stoltenberg (left) and Antony Blinken (right) have today warned Putin that NATO is ready to defend 'every inch' of its territory in the event of a Russian attack, but is not seeking a war
A delusional Putin has again insisted that Russia is not bombing Ukrainian cities, despite fears that 100 people are buried under rubble after an apartment block near Kyiv was struck and after an attack on the city of Chernihiv which killed 49
MILITARY ANALYSTS SAY NATO WILL NOT IMPOSE A NO-FLY ZONE
Military analysts say there is no chance that the US, Britain and their European allies will impose a no-fly zone because it could easily escalate the war in Ukraine into a nuclear confrontation between NATO and Russia.
WHAT IS A NO-FLY ZONE?
A no-fly zone would bar all unauthorized aircraft from flying over Ukraine. Western nations imposed such restrictions over parts of Iraq for more than a decade following the 1991 Gulf War, during the civil war in Bosnia and Herzegovina from 1993-95, and during the Libyan civil war in 2011.
WHY WON'T NATO TAKE THIS STEP IN UKRAINE?
In simple terms, because it would risk a direct military conflict with Russia that could escalate into a wider European war with a nuclear-armed superpower.
While the idea may have captured the public imagination, declaring a no-fly zone could force NATO pilots to shoot down Russian aircraft.
But it goes beyond that. In addition to fighter planes, NATO would have to deploy refueling tankers and electronic-surveillance aircraft to support the mission.
To protect these relatively slow, high-flying planes, NATO would have to destroy surface-to-air missile batteries in Russia and Belarus, again risking a broader conflict.
'The only way to implement a no-fly zone is to send NATO fighter planes into Ukrainian airspace, and then impose that no-fly zone by shooting down Russian planes,' NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said Friday.
'We understand the desperation, but we also believe that if we did that, we would end up with something that could end in a full-fledged war in Europe.'
'We have a responsibility as NATO allies to prevent this war from escalating beyond Ukraine,' he said.
WHAT WOULD A NO-FLY ZONE ACHIEVE?
Ukrainian authorities and people cowering night after night in bomb shelters say a no-fly zone would protect civilians - and now nuclear power stations - from Russian air strikes.
But analysts say it's Russia's ground forces, not aircraft, that are causing most of the damage in Ukraine.
What Ukrainians actually want is a broader intervention like the one that occurred in Libya in 2011, when NATO forces launched attacks on government positions, said Justin Bronk, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. That's not likely to happen when the opponent is Russia.
'They want to see the West kind of sweeping in and taking out the rocket artillery that's pummeling Ukrainian cities,' Bronk said.
'We're not going to go to war against the Russian army. They are a massive nuclear-armed power. There is no way that we could possibly model, let alone control, the escalation chain that would come from such an action.'
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE SKIES OVER UKRAINE?
Predictions that Russia would quickly control the skies over Ukraine have not come to fruition.
Military experts are wondering why Russia has chosen to leave most of its fixed-wing combat aircraft on the ground during this massive land offensive.
One explanation may be that Russian pilots aren't well trained in supporting large-scale land operations, engagements that require coordination with artillery, helicopters and other assets in a fast-moving environment.
'I think that maybe they're a little bit worried that that is a very constrained area. It's not like the Middle East, where there's all kinds of space to roam around in the air,' said Robert Latif, a retired U.S. Air Force major general who now teaches at the University of Notre Dame.
'They could very easily stray over borders,' he explained.
'With both Ukrainian and Russian air defense systems and Ukrainian, what little they have, and Russian airplanes all flying around - that could be a very confusing. I think maybe they're a little bit worried about actually being able to pull it off.'
In the frenzied initial aftermath when the risk of a radiation release was not clear, the attack caused worldwide concern – and evoked memories of the world's worst nuclear disaster, at Ukraine's Chernobyl.
Facing worldwide indignation over the attack, Russia sought to deflect blame. Without producing evidence, defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov blamed arson rather than artillery fire.
He claimed a Ukrainian 'sabotage group' had occupied the training building at the plant, fired on a Russian patrol and set fire to the building as they left.
There had been conflicting reports earlier over which part of the Zaporizhzhia facility had been affected in the attack, with an official saying at one point that shells fell directly on the facility and set fire to a reactor not in operation as well as a training building. Grossi later said that the fire was in the training centre.
The confusion itself underscored the dangers of active fighting near a nuclear power plant. It was the second time since the invasion began just over a week ago that concerns about a nuclear accident or a release of radiation materialized, following a battle at Chernobyl.
Grossi said only one reactor of six at Zaporizhzhia is currently operating, at about 60 per cent capacity, and that two people at the site were injured in the fire.
Ukraine's state nuclear plant operator Enerhoatom said three Ukrainian soldiers were killed and two wounded.
The plant fire came as the Russian military advanced on a strategic city on the Dnieper River near where the facility is located, and gained ground in their bid to cut the country off from the sea.
That move would deal a severe blow to Ukraine's economy and could worsen an already dire humanitarian situation.
With the invasion in its second week, another round of talks between Russia and Ukraine yielded a tentative agreement to set up safe corridors to evacuate citizens and deliver humanitarian aid to the country, overturned by a war that has sent more than 1million fleeing over the border and countless others sheltering underground.
A handful of cities are without heat and at least one is struggling to get food and water.
In the centre of the capital, Kyiv, frequent shelling could still be heard Friday, although more distant than in recent days, with loud thudding every 10 minutes resonating over the rooftops.
The West has heaped sanctions on Russia, and most of the world lined up to demand Russia withdraw its troops in a vote in the UN General Assembly this week.
In the latest show of international opposition to the invasion, the UN's top human rights body voted 32-2 on a resolution that would among other things set up a panel of experts to monitor human rights in Ukraine. Only Russia and Eritrea opposed; there were 13 abstentions.
The attack on the nuclear facility led to phone calls between the Ukrainian president and Biden and other world leaders. The US Department of Energy activated its nuclear incident response team as a precaution.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to raise the issue of Russia's attack on the plant.
In an emotional speech in the middle of the night, Zelensky said he feared an explosion that would be 'the end for everyone. The end for Europe. The evacuation of Europe'. But most experts saw nothing to indicate an impending disaster.
'The real threat to Ukrainian lives continues to be the violent invasion and bombing of their country,' the American Nuclear Society said in a statement.
Putin's forces have brought their superior firepower to bear over the past few days, launching hundreds of missiles and artillery attacks on cities and other sites around the country and making significant gains in the south.
The Russians announced the capture of the southern city of Kherson, a vital Black Sea port of 280,000, and local Ukrainian officials confirmed the takeover of the government headquarters there, making it the first major city to fall since the invasion began just over a week ago.
A Russian airstrike destroyed a power plant in Okhtyrka, leaving the northeastern city without heat or electricity, the head of the region said on Telegram.
'We are trying to figure out how to get people out of the city urgently because in a day the apartment buildings will turn into a cold stone trap without water, light or electricity,' Dmytro Zhyvytskyy said.
Another strategic port, Mariupol on the Azov Sea, was 'partially under siege,' and Ukrainian forces are pushing back efforts to surround the city, Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovich said.
'The humanitarian situation is tense,' he told reporters, adding that Ukrainian authorities are in talks with Russian representatives and international organisations to set up humanitarian corridor to evacuate residents and supply food.
Battles in the area have knocked out the city's electricity, heat and water systems, as well as most phone service, officials said. Food deliveries to the city were also cut.
Video from the port city showed the assault lighting up the darkening sky above deserted streets and medical teams treating civilians, including a 16-year-old boy who could not be saved.
The child was playing football when he was wounded in the shelling, according to his father, who cradled the boy's head on the trolley and cried.
A woman and child look on as they flee towards Poland, in the train station in Lviv, March 5, 2022
Sparks erupt from an administration building (bottom right) as a live steam video shot from a larger office block behind it films Russian tanks opening fire on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the early hours of Friday morning
Rafael Mariano Grossi, head of the UN's nuclear energy watchdog, outlines where the building that caught fire was in relation to the six reactors at Zaporizhzhia
As fears of a nuclear disaster continue, Russian planes also bombed a thermal power plant in Okhtyrka (pictured), 220 miles east of Kyiv, on Friday
Russian armoured vehicles and troops attacked the nuclear power plant in the early hours of Friday, shooting and shelling guards holed up in administrative buildings near the nuclear reactors - setting one of them on fire
Fire-damaged buildings at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear complex are pictured on Friday morning after coming under attack by Russian forces overnight, leading to international condemnation
In the early hours of Friday, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was attacked. A damaged Russian attack vehicle is seen outside the power plant (left) while firefighters work to extinguish a fire that broke out inside a training complex (right)
Vladimir Putin says Western sanctions on Russia are almost a declaration of WAR and anyone imposing no-fly zone on Ukraine would be considered to have entered the conflict
Vladimir Putin said today that Western sanctions on Russia are almost a declaration of war and that anyone imposing a no-fly zone on Ukraine would be considered to have entered the conflict.
He reiterated that his aims are to defend Russian speaking communities through the 'demilitarisation and de-Nazification' of the country so that it became neutral.
Ukraine and Western countries have dismissed this as a baseless pretext for the invasion he launched on February 24 and have imposed a sweeping range of sanctions aimed at isolating Moscow.
Speaking to a group of female pilots at an Aeroflot training centre near Moscow, Putin said: 'These sanctions that are being imposed are akin to a declaration of war but thank God it has not come to that.'
He warned that any third-party declaration of a no-fly zone over Ukraine would be considered as 'participation in the armed conflict', and Russia would view 'any move in this direction' as an intervention that 'will pose a threat to our service members'.
Ukraine's defence minister said Friday that the flagship of its navy has been scuttled at the shipyard where it was undergoing repairs in order to keep it from being seized by Russian forces.
Oleksii Reznikov said on Facebook that the commander of the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny decided to flood the ship.
Ukraine's state emergency agency issued mass text messages on Friday with advice on what to do in case of an explosion: Lie on the ground and cover your head with your hands; use available shelter; do not rush to leave the shelter; help the wounded; do not enter damaged buildings.
Overall, the outnumbered, outgunned Ukrainians have put up stiff resistance, staving off the swift victory that Russia appeared to have expected.
But Russia's seizure of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 gives it a logistical advantage now in the country's south, with shorter supply lines that smoothed the offensive there, said a senior US defence official.
Ukrainian leaders called on the people to defend their homeland by cutting down trees, erecting barricades in the cities and attacking enemy columns from the rear.
In recent days, authorities have issued weapons to civilians and taught them how to make Molotov cocktails.
As the Russian and Ukrainian negotiators met in Belarus on Thursday, Putin warned in a call with Macron that Ukraine must quickly accept the Kremlin's demand for its 'demilitarisation' and declare itself neutral, renouncing its bid to join NATO.
The two sides said they tentatively agreed to allow cease-fires in areas designated safe corridors, and that they would seek to work out the necessary details quickly.
A Zelensky adviser also said a third round of talks will be held early next week.
The Pentagon set up a direct communication link to Russia's ministry of defence earlier this week to avoid the possibility of a miscalculation sparking conflict between Moscow and Washington.
A military quagmire, Putin ousted or Russian victory: Experts outline five ways the Ukraine war could go, 10 days into Putin's invasion
Ten days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin shows no sign of pulling back.
This morning Russia's defence ministry declared a ceasefire for the 'opening of humanitarian corridors to allow civilians to leave Mariupol and Volnovakha' expected to have started from 10am Moscow time (7am GMT).
Distressing images from the scene continue to emerge, including an image of a baby being rescued from the scene of a brutal attack near Kyiv, while other photos showed a terrified woman walking past a burning house after Irpin was pounded by Kremlin forces.
Russia is continuing to advance in southern Ukraine, with Mariupol under bombardment and Odessa and Mykolaiv under threat. Chernihiv, in the north, and Kharkiv, in the east, continue to come under heavy bombardment. The capital Kyiv is also under threat, though Ukrainian counter-attacks took out some Russian forces early on Friday
Russia shows the movement of its forces in Kyiv region. Troops invaded on February 24 and have continued with brutal attacks
Russia's forces pictured in Kyiv. After Ukraine, some speculate that Putin might also be eyeing Moldova, a former Soviet state wedged between Ukraine and Romania
Despite this Putin is insisting that Russia is not bombing Ukrainian cities, amid mounting fears that 100 people are buried under rubble after an apartment block near Kyiv was struck and after a cluster bomb attack on the city of Chernihiv killed 49.
Here are possible scenarios for the weeks and months ahead, according to Western government sources and think-tank experts.
Military quagmire
Ukrainian forces have resisted Russia's invasion so far, defeating an attempt by paratroopers to seize the capital in the opening days and keeping control over major cities such as Kharkiv and Mariupol.
Although Russia claims it has full air superiority, Ukraine's air defences around the capital Kyiv and in other areas appear to be degraded but still working, Western officials say.
'That's caused them so many problems,' a European source told reporters yesterday on condition of anonymity.
Vast numbers of Ukrainians have also joined territorial defence units and questions remain about the morale of the Russian army and its logistical support.
Ten days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, President Vladimir Putin (pictured) shows no sign of pulling back
Backed by Western intelligence and a flow of anti-tank and surface-to-air missiles, Ukraine's troops might be able to hold out in the capital and force some sort of military stalemate.
Deepening Western sanctions that are strangling the Russian economy might force Putin to change his calculations.
This week Samuel Charap from the RAND Corporation, a US think-tank, wrote: 'The West could leverage some sanctions to push Putin to abandon his core war aim of decapitating the Ukrainian government and installing a pro-Russian puppet.'
Pressure from Beijing, increasingly a Kremlin ally under President Xi Jinping, might also be necessary.
Domestic Russian change
Russian President Vladimir Putin is keeping a close eye on domestic dissent.
A crackdown on independent media and foreign news providers has removed alternative sources of information about the war, cementing the grip of the ultra-loyal Russian state media.
Nevertheless, small anti-war demonstrations have taken place in cities from Saint Petersburg to Moscow, with at least 6,000 people arrested, according to local rights groups.
There are also signs of cracks in the ruling elite, with some oligarchs, MPs, and even private oil group Lukoil calling openly for a ceasefire or an end to fighting.
A woman reacts as she stands in front of a house burning after being shelled in the city of Irpin, outside Kyiv yesterday
Russian policemen detain a protester during rally against Russia entering troops into Ukraine in St Petersburg, Russia, yesterday
Though not seen as likely at this stage, the possibility of Putin being brought down in a popular backlash or even a palace coup is not being ruled out.
'His personal security is very good and it will be very good until the moment it isn't,' said Eliot A. Cohen from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think-tank.
'That's happened numerous times in Soviet and Russian history.'
Russian military success
Given Russian troops' superior weapons, air power and devastating use of artillery, Western defence analysts expect them to continue grinding forward.
A huge convoy of vehicles has been assembled outside of Kyiv ahead of what is expected to be an assault on the capital.
French President Emmanuel Macron concluded that 'the worst is still to come' after a call with Putin on Thursday morning.
A Ukrainian soldier was pictured rescuing a tiny baby from a scene of total devastation in Irpin, including what appeared to be a bombed-out bridge
Pictured, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. Distressing images from the scene continue to emerge
Putin wants 'to seize control of the whole of Ukraine', an aide told reporters afterwards.
But even if Russian troops depose Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and overrun Ukraine's resistance elsewhere, Putin would then face the challenge of occupying a nation of 40 million.
Lawrence Freedman, a British warfare historian and King's College London professor, wrote on Substack this week: 'Getting into a city is not the same as holding it.'
Conflict spreads
Ukraine has a border with four former Soviet states that are now members of the US-led NATO military alliance, which considers an attack on one member to be an attack against all.
Putin's nostalgia for the Soviet Union and his pledge to protect Russian minorities - which are found in the Baltic States - has left an open question about his territorial ambitions.
After Ukraine, some speculate that Putin might also be eyeing Moldova, a former Soviet state wedged between Ukraine and Romania.
Workers pictured yesterday clearing the debris of a school building destroyed by shelling, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in Zhytomyr, Ukraine
Few expect Putin to openly attack a NATO member, which would run the risk of nuclear war, but other provocations are possible.
'Neutral Sweden is keeping a watchful eye on Russia's intentions towards the Gotland island in the Baltic Sea,' wrote analyst Bruno Tertrais for the Montaigne Institute, a French think-tank.
Charap warned of the 'risks of an accident, incident, or miscalculation that spirals into a NATO-Russia war', with anything from a stray missile to cyberattacks providing the spark.
NATO confrontation
This was always thought to be impossible because of the nuclear weapons' mutual guarantee of destruction.
The US and Russia have opened up a so-called 'deconfliction line' over which they can exchange military information quickly to reduce the chances of a misunderstanding.
The same method is employed in Syria, where US and Russian forces have been active on opposite sides of the country's civil war since 2015.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, pictured, has warned that a third world war can 'only be a nuclear' one
But Putin has ordered Russia's nuclear deterrent forces onto high alert and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has warned that 'World War Three can only be a nuclear war'.
Western analysts say such warnings should be taken as posturing to deter the United States and Europe from considering ideas such as a 'no-fly zone' over Ukraine.
Gustav Gressel, an expert on missile defence at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said: 'These announcements are predominately addressed to a Western audience to make us fear and our societies insecure.'They use nuclear deterrence as a form of information operation. There's no substance.'
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The innocent victims slaughtered as they tried to flee Ukraine
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